Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7609681c220dfd4fcbbbe7842f134eaf930d0a770f3d9a2bf8f3398b929cb954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 314.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 231.38$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 172.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 8c | 154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 133.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 44c | 121.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 119.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 40c | 117.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 113.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 102.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 86.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 73c | 84.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 77.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 66c | 69.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 66c | 68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 34c | 67.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 68c | 61.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 60.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 62c | 49.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 43c | 45.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 29c | 44.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 43.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 40.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 36.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 53c | 31.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…0cfbbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 55c | 23.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.