Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c40d00548f27f8740824a03170005aff0607e33ac462a49ad32216f667c316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 435.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.27 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 200.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 199.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 149.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 135.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 106.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 89.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 19c | 88.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 79.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 78.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 77.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 75.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 70.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 20c | 69.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 78c | 69.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 24c | 68.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 38c | 65.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 64.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 18c | 62.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 55.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 24c | 50.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 424 | 47.9%203 W · 221 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 49.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 41.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…0cfbbacked No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 79c | 20.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 80c | 18.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…6996backed No | 74c | 17.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 72cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,322 | 75.9%1,004 W · 318 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.