NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs go undefeated?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x762eec6d15c52adde5788a3accd48f534b9b758d02c0de85cba2d55a59eb2652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 9c | 5,598$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,012$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…2a6dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,660$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…e31ebacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 10c | 494.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c63abacked Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 11c | 349.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 254 | 53.9%137 W · 117 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 319.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…2479backed Yes | 11c | 276.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…901fbacked Yes | 10c | 218$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes | 10c | 203.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 189$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…2010backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…a97bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…c70cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d25…4e7cbacked Yes | 11c | 108.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.