Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763da636cca19c3e47916a29b293484021efcf6aa2a1eab384816b86990134a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 76c | 7,656$5,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.42 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 4,341$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.79 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 20c | 2,214$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.67 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 77c | 1,609$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.3 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 10c | 1,259$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48fb…ced4backed Under | 3c | 695$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +688.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 20c | 599.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 32c | 236.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 20c | 233.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 33c | 182.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 19c | 181.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 34c | 179.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 33c | 166.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 34c | 126.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 33c | 94.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 24c | 56.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 31c | 51.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Under | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 34c | 48.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…a0c2backed Over | 77c | 45.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 70c | 33.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 59c | 33.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 79c | 31.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 63 | 82.5%52 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 62c | 17.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.