Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc631359f70d347606425e2b89c91e17c48714a5a03899c17952ad13b993f84d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 7,038$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.58 | 868 | 43%373 W · 495 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 4,143$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.51 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 36c | 3,648$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.49 | 2,585 | 40%1,035 W · 1,550 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 1,581$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.92 | 1,656 | 50.8%841 W · 815 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 46c | 1,518$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.59 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 26c | 1,353$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.66 | 1,337 | 56.5%756 W · 581 L | +64.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under | 44c | 1,125$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 918.36$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.88 | 940 | 44.7%420 W · 520 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Under | 68c | 663.63$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 65c | 629.52$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.03 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 66c | 599.96$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 68c | 527$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 1,143 | 46.5%531 W · 612 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…5631backed Over | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 275.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 65c | 272.89$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 418 | 50.5%211 W · 207 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 73c | 249.28$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 254 | 55.5%141 W · 113 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 73c | 242.51$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 375 | 53.6%201 W · 174 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 75c | 216.56$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 215.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 1,724 | 36.5%629 W · 1,095 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 219 | 53%116 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 192.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 1,818 | 50.4%917 W · 901 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 27c | 133.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Over | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 66c | 94.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 244 | 59.8%146 W · 98 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 65c | 87.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 246 | 61.8%152 W · 94 L | +18.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 302 | 46.4%140 W · 162 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,066 | 41.7%445 W · 621 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 74c | 78.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 72c | 74.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 961 | 35.3%339 W · 622 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 41c | 68.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…b9f8backed Under | 47c | 64.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…37e0backed Under | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 70c | 45.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 33c | 43.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,537 | 35.1%540 W · 997 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 67c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 937 | 46%431 W · 506 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 27c | 39.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 41c | 34.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 66c | 28.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 41c | 28.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 473 | 53.1%251 W · 222 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Under | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 66c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 93 | 65.6%61 W · 32 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 76c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 65c | 18.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.