Champions League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764667e968352e214923d702cb7bcc9f78dfab77c15bb3996195241565566251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 716.74$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 594.29$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 80c | 444$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…4683backed Over | 25c | 412.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 18c | 320$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 14c | 285.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…663cbacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 23c | 65.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 80c | 26.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.