Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295f2daba80198b200b3f7b912a0215e08403f913151085669e98563e5cd35e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sport Lisboa e Benficaof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, SSC Napoli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SSC Napoli | 61c | 2,644$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.66 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 14c | 1,499$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.14 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 14c | 885.03$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.13 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 44c | 861.6$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.74 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed SSC Napoli | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…ba8bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 16c | 158$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 35c | 137.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…b28abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked SSC Napoli | 70c | 79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 32c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed SSC Napoli | 70c | 33.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.