Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a12d9dd46f045d4ff6bb7af2711b8e6fd14ac14b9916473c3645e772d4e265

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,001 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No	52c	7,160$3,729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,430.8	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed No	50c	3,835$1,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,899.13	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Yes	50c	2,003$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Yes	52c	1,950$1,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,014	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	48c	1,876$891 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$984.67	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes	50c	1,663$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.5	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	-7.1wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No	48c	1,615$774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$841.05	375	44%165 W · 210 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes	53c	1,235$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.54	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No	48c	1,155$554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.6	174	26.4%46 W · 128 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	39c	1,075$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.4	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Yes	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	123	54.5%67 W · 56 L	+8.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	49c	582.83$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.82	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No	51c	530.38$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.59	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes	47c	499.99$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	220	54.1%119 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	51c	443.96$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.54	189	50.3%95 W · 94 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda70…828bbacked Yes	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed No	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes	48c	358.25$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.96	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6579…b0a5backed Yes	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	50c	287.36$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.68	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0965…f434backed Yes	49c	204.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No	49c	189.98$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.54	217	45.6%99 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No	48c	185.5$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.78	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc15d…6a7cbacked Yes	62c	161.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes	49c	159.18$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Yes	49c	157.76$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.3	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4341…6451backed Yes	54c	148.85$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-25%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x977e…f89fbacked Yes	52c	144.92$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e8…5e6bbacked Yes	61c	144.91$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.4	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No	49c	144.47$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.4	382	53.9%206 W · 176 L	+21.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes	47c	117.94$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	56	51.8%29 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed No	53c	106.26$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.46	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed Yes	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Yes	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	96	53.1%51 W · 45 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Yes	49c	86.73$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7805…ead7backed Yes	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes	58c	65.52$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+4.1wins	+0.17per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a92…5a5ebacked Yes	49c	65.31$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked No	55c	63.64$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.64	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7175…08f1backed Yes	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4a…b153backed Yes	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Yes	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	38.5%25 W · 40 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3875…ea76backed Yes	49c	61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff27…92babacked Yes	45c	58.4$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Yes	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed No	51c	45.19$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.04	114	50.9%58 W · 56 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d2…1462backed Yes	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241c…5407backed Yes	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…4cfdbacked Yes	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…035dbacked Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0501…61ecbacked Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x760d…deaabacked Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Yes	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a2f…420ebacked Yes	49c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes	67c	31.34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa741…1b31backed Yes	48c	31.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x706c…7752backed Yes	66c	30.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No	52c	29.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	344	49.7%171 W · 173 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a1…1c72backed Yes	44c	27.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.31per pick	47cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed No	55c	23.92$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	127	51.2%65 W · 62 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed No	54c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.76	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…4bc1backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.0wins	-0.34per pick	56cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed No	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	75	56%42 W · 33 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Scorethis page
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event