Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767008b92f12f14cbd878adc370d76216296600a8d8a1eb2a07836627f94f446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 567.69$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 28c | 275.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 265.13$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 254.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 25c | 118.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 23c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 21c | 74.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 57.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 55.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 27c | 54.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 54.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 51.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 48.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 74c | 47.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 29c | 40.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 33.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 32.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 30.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 79c | 26.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 24.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.