Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x769fa2f4ae9153da6f709ffd9bba24037174d2398016b0ab125e3985d9dd0f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof FlyQuest, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed FlyQuest | 50c | 8,879$4,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,406.05 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 52c | 6,573$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150.2 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed FlyQuest | 59c | 5,066$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.33 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 45c | 3,611$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.4 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 39c | 1,459$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.04 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 39c | 772.04$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.46 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 604.48$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.48 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 43c | 555.93$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.41 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked FlyQuest | 47c | 446.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed FlyQuest | 38c | 411.62$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.05 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c930backed FlyQuest | 53c | 360$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 212 | 57.1%121 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…3d79backed FlyQuest | 51c | 304.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed FlyQuest | 53c | 303$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 42c | 264.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.49 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 259.2$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 52c | 248.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 229.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 222$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed FlyQuest | 19c | 211.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 184$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | -10.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked FlyQuest | 50c | 115.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 108$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 84.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…635cbacked FlyQuest | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked FlyQuest | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FlyQuest | 25c | 68.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 48c | 67.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed FlyQuest | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 51c | 57.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 391 | 66%258 W · 133 L | +24.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked FlyQuest | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 385 | 48.6%187 W · 198 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…2ba5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 39.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed FlyQuest | 45c | 34.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…84a6backed FlyQuest | 59c | 33.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 231 | 51.9%120 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…1cb0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 52c | 30.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 26.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…449abacked FlyQuest | 50c | 26.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 21.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.