Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db311f8e38287b3eb3134dcc38cc7550389455004200e409dea4ef9d8d6df3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof FlyQuest, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed FlyQuest | 41c | 13,136$5,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,339.53 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…75cfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 59c | 8,437$4,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,460.67 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed FlyQuest | 34c | 3,251$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.96 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 51c | 1,400$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.36 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 1,320$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.63 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 53c | 662.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 612.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 512.13$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.43 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…dca2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 77c | 510.63$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 77c | 485.74$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 68c | 360.75$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c930backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 238$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 212 | 57.1%121 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 234.16$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 73c | 228$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ade0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 75c | 227.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 67c | 199$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked FlyQuest | 18c | 189.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 66c | 186.56$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed FlyQuest | 14c | 184.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 157.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…e188backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 141.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec2…3fe2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 72c | 137.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked FlyQuest | 54c | 112.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 420 | 51.9%218 W · 202 L | -21.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…5c4ebacked FlyQuest | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 96.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FlyQuest | 32c | 93.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 72c | 93.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked FlyQuest | 50c | 84.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked FlyQuest | 24c | 75.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…1f47backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked FlyQuest | 24c | 71.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 155 | 12.3%19 W · 136 L | -27.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 65c | 64.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 385 | 48.6%187 W · 198 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed FlyQuest | 31c | 57.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 65c | 46.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked FlyQuest | 29c | 42.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f2…ee56backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 53c | 39.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed FlyQuest | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…449abacked FlyQuest | 69c | 15.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.