Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c8c096426419f3667439c7c53dc000f8706bf27d5848a7823778d81561aa51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 704.96$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.08 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 47c | 368.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 70c | 280.1$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 270.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 268.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 259.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 210.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 32c | 193$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 152.37$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 48c | 147.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 147.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 51c | 133.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 131.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 110.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 101.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 100.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 96.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 48c | 93.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 83.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 74.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 68.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 54c | 62.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 44.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 43.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 72c | 39.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 39.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 37.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 45c | 34.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 31.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 30.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 61c | 29.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 27.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 25.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fe…d040backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 60c | 18.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.