Asian League · resolved market
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76d7844356a54a0aedca25a228ce3837cab5bdc3c4c73c8b7ce434f6480a751e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 15c | 2,051$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.66 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Under | 69c | 1,144$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 12c | 475.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 15c | 430$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…3efbbacked Over | 15c | 407.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 32c | 174.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 18c | 140.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 22c | 110.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 101.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 18c | 76.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 67.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 60.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 73c | 49.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.