NHL · resolved market
Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7701272a5fb874b794ed6f178508cb139b70088e32b844e51c3e53b087ac7ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Blue Jackets, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Blue Jackets | 31c | 2,544$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.13 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers | 69c | 1,483$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.86 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Flyers | 69c | 348.95$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flyers | 68c | 281.21$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.22 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…887fbacked Flyers | 69c | 254.87$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 69c | 218.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Flyers | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Flyers | 68c | 193.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Blue Jackets | 32c | 143.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Blue Jackets | 32c | 138.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Blue Jackets | 31c | 101.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Blue Jackets | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flyers | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Blue Jackets | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Blue Jackets | 31c | 46.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Flyers | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Flyers | 65c | 43.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Blue Jackets | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Flyers | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Flyers | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Flyers | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Flyers | 69c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. Blue JacketsBlue Jackets won
- Flyers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.