Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x772b37fe6386a7d73fa51115f7e72b90f1e6ee2cf18ae638303eaf86dc2d66cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 267.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 47c | 264.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 10c | 254.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 209.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked No | 70c | 190.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 40c | 167.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 39c | 166.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 46c | 152.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 60c | 145.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 129.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 27c | 115.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 111.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 49c | 91.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 65c | 83.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 83.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 40c | 81.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 39c | 79.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 56c | 71.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 67c | 69.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 69.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 61c | 63.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 62.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed No | 62c | 57.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 46c | 47.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 44.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 39.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 38c | 35.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 66c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…9457backed Yes | 47c | 27.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 25.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 66c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 59c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 61c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 63c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.