Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450974b48420d34dcf1abd159e8849b84ef3bc0490f91d8f307ca3cb2a4a52d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 8c | 837.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 422.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 60c | 283.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 220.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 165.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 158.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 67c | 150.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 145.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 134.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 22c | 111.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 37c | 107.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 21c | 100.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 39c | 83.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 40c | 66.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 36c | 62.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 42c | 58.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 35c | 57.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 51.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 62c | 48.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 58c | 48.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 32c | 46.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 39.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 48c | 33.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 32.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 32.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 64c | 32.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 35c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 29.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 56c | 26.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 41c | 26.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed Yes | 48c | 25.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 25.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 23.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 55c | 22.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 63c | 21.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 49c | 20.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.