Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7742b506f0ec238f04c70008994299f81ca0be6082d34c79b5bf91b20112ab6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 1,158$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 853.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 9c | 844.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed Yes | 10c | 797.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 771.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 4c | 697.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 2c | 659.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 637.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…59c8backed Yes | 2c | 568.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 474.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 3c | 460$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 352.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 7c | 349.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 12c | 293.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 15c | 278.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 7c | 253.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 247.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 229.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 9c | 217.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 12c | 187.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 173.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…d417backed Yes | 12c | 171.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 14c | 144.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 8c | 144.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dce…ea78backed Yes | 12c | 129.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe820…9f12backed Yes | 8c | 127.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 14c | 105.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 12c | 96.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 14c | 75.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.