TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,832 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302c…abcebacked Yes25c2,399$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.6416724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…c69cbacked Yes25c1,393$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.215317%9 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes37c971.68$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6215570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c942.29$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c908.25$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.028,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c883.7$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.645,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c540.6$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c526.56$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes29c498.87$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes30c490.57$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.819737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c463.68$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.833,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c450$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes23c449.61$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes20c433.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.581,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes27c425.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.741,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes6c416$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1481,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c366$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.964,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c352.26$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.674,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes30c331.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c324.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.071,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No72c319.92$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7360054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes18c317.26$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7149038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes10c308$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9696620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes11c297.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.041,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No77c273.04$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.243,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No73c265.51$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.241,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes29c262.09$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7417643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No72c256.52$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.544,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes33c240.85$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.416543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c218.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78fb…ab43backed Yes24c208.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes22c185.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8618629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes24c181.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.114,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c176$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.564,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes9c170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes18c161.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.387832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes9c156.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.731,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked Yes29c149.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8412072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed No73c136.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1318222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes23c135.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.151,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2809…1652backed Yes24c135.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.513040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea4a…39d3backed Yes27c135.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.572416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f1…f437backed Yes25c135.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309b…40a1backed Yes23c134.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.021127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No75c133.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.572,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c132.46$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.864,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e3…6863backed Yes23c127.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.044233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c127.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.274,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No73c126.73$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9277555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee6…07cabacked Yes21c120.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.49540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes23c112.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.124344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No71c109.57$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2663538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes29c105.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes16c105.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.899832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes30c101.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1119947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd69f…e526backed Yes29c101.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.532114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d14…c13abacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1711222.3%25 W · 87 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes25c98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c97.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes26c96.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.981526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No73c91.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0e27…d5babacked Yes13c86.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.983135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c86.29$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.913,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes31c83.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8741046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4209…0ccdbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+89.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes20c79.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x67a7…b997backed Yes25c76.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.212725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes29c75.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No71c74.52$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.692,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes26c74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.173,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes28c69.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5811612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No71c69.57$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes23c69.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1687437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes15c68.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3119148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes19c68.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9416832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes30c68.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No75c68.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No65c65.82$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes28c65.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes21c65.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.786226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes19c64.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.653243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No75c64.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5431649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes18c64.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.565042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No72c62.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.545675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes38c60.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No78c60.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0116550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed Yes38c59.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3825766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c55.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.891,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No64c55.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7228163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No75c53.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.232,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No75c51.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b5…c988backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.53345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.