Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd5e82ff8277c6234d4fa4a212ca98e2bdebeccb3e87ff366c35f25383dc0a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 43c | 2,306$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.95 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 33c | 1,593$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.15 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 939.7$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 530.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 31c | 524.8$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.12 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 31c | 524$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.16 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 444.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 433.42$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 418.65$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 384.66$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 375.89$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 355.88$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 32c | 337.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.47 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 319.85$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 318.02$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.15 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 39c | 302.23$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed No | 3c | 300.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 281.4$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 38c | 270.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.17 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 66c | 268.03$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.63 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 245.26$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 19c | 237.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 226.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 223.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 36c | 210$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 46c | 202.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 188.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 32c | 180.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 180$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 174.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 152.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 148.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 8c | 146.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 143.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 142.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 32c | 133.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 129$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 34c | 125.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 41c | 121.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 118.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 113.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 108.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 100.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 59c | 93.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 54c | 92.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 92.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 38c | 90.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 86.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed No | 63c | 84.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 79.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 73.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 45c | 71.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 40c | 71.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 36c | 70.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 34c | 70.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f007backed Yes | 54c | 69.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 64.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 58.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 56.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…4325backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 55.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 54.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 52.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Yes | 34c | 52.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 51.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 31c | 51.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 48c | 50.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.