TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,291 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302c…abcebacked Yes43c2,306$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.9516724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes33c1,593$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.1510539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c939.7$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.165,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c530.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.758,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes31c524.8$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.1256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes31c524$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.1625947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes32c444.48$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.074,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes36c433.42$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.573,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No38c418.65$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.444,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c384.66$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.64,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c375.89$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.365,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c355.88$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes32c337.16$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.4719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No64c319.85$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.71,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No64c318.02$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes39c302.23$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.861,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61bf…9862backed No3c300.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c281.4$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.736,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes38c270.17$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.171,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No66c268.03$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6323666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c245.26$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.23,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No19c237.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c226.22$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.934,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c223.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.763,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes36c210$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.97234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes46c202.8$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c188.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes32c180.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6418629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c180$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.974,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c178$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c176$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes30c174.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c160$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.494,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes25c160$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12041046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No70c152.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No65c148.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.862,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No8c146.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.061,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No69c143.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9232872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes34c142.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.272,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No32c133.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.042,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No69c129$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0186949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes34c125.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.224344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes41c121.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0118222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No65c120$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c118.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.889,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No65c113.55$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.161,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No47c108.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3316847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c100.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.083,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7425175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6771031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5146232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc4…1a48backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes26c96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.382,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No68c95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes59c93.73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes54c92.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No39c92.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.482,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes38c90.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c86.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.663,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed No63c84.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.82236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c79.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c73.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes45c71.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5813242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes40c71.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.256243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbce1…712bbacked No70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503455.9%19 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes36c70.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5330332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e3…6863backed Yes34c70.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.234233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc04…f007backed Yes54c69.73$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.731346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed3f…3e99backed Yes31c66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.543531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes28c64.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8487437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.55841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes33c60.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.622335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.448523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1722744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.783,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes34c59.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.740535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No47c59.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2416550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No68c58.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.141,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c56.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.882,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfe…4325backed Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.562128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes34c55.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.565,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes29c55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes29c54.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.881,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No70c52.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.841,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed Yes34c52.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.811668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes44c51.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.62,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes31c51.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes48c50.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5319947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3126256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2244646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.652,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.