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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,899 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes11c1,442$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes16c1,060$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0616724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes2c860.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.214,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes17c757.19$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.441,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c751.09$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.518,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes23c740.36$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.411,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c706.01$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.388,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes27c647.88$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.111,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c616.18$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes11c538.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.282,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes18c479.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed Yes38c460.44$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.252236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c449.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.011,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes18c370.77$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3616543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No76c370.7$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.383,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes23c362.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9518222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No78c323.35$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No77c292.47$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.323,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c281.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.216,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes17c271.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a6…1083backed Yes20c252.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed3f…3e99backed Yes24c241$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.743531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c236.35$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.194,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No79c225.34$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4223666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e3…6863backed Yes23c204.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.614233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No78c194.62$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.986,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes6c191.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes19c188.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.077234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes21c187.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes18c184.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.648523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c181.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes17c174$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.122,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No80c172.14$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.492,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c170.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c162$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.594,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes22c155$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes25c153.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.176243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes24c149.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.962,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes22c146.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No78c133.87$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff0…9c82backed Yes20c128.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.242030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes21c127.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes17c126.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.583,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No80c126.25$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.622,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes13c124.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes17c120.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes22c115.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.427246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes26c107.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1119947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes21c105.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes20c104.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.944,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes17c104$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.826256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2418629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes17c99.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1771031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No76c99.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes15c96.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes16c92.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.465024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cfe…4325backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc04…f007backed Yes22c89.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4b3…e571backed Yes23c86.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.583237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c83.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes14c77.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7718567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No75c75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7549038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes18c74.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes23c72.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2997152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes21c72.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.313,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.089635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes26c71.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes18c69.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4625135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes28c66.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No75c60.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0149551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes18c57.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes19c56.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.533243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes29c54.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1627421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No78c53.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes24c52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes21c51.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No78c51.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1368867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c7…0b47backed Yes26c47.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.353554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes22c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0514524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c43.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.79566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No78c40.65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.941,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103218.8%6 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.857747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No76c39.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.369756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No74c36.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5891861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes30c35.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5719734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed No73c30.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4620144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No75c30.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6189951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No74c28.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No79c25.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3916157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No76c22.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3328360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.