Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7749eac965d61021595d4c29825da12618487510581da5b2850203958f2cbef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 4c | 1,083$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 72c | 491.75$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 335.79$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 323.87$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 272.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.26 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 207.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 22c | 205.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.48 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 21c | 184.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.91 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 12c | 177.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 34c | 166.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 45c | 161.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 11c | 146.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 144.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 135.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 132.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 9c | 124.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 20c | 108.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 107.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed No | 61c | 107.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 107.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 99.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 11c | 92.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 17c | 91.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 16c | 88.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 20c | 86.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 82.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 81.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 13c | 79.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 17c | 76.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 67.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 66.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 17c | 63.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 49c | 58.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 19c | 56.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 61c | 53.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 50.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 21c | 47.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 42c | 44.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…0d7cbacked Yes | 48c | 42.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 32.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 76c | 32.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 75c | 31.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 78c | 25.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 22.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 22.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 78c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.