Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9232fc07a758ab16b66b2b45348418630aa17b2fac1765647ba8564917c70ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa502…4c89backed Yes | 58c | 847.11$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 538.78$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.38 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 37c | 398.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.06 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 71c | 279.67$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 239.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 231.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 54c | 207.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 197.28$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 61c | 195.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 195.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 173.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 150.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 148.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 33c | 142.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 134.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 130.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 125.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 55c | 124.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 20c | 123.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 13c | 112.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 92.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 89.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 29c | 85.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 84.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 75c | 83.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 55c | 82.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 36c | 81.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 31c | 76.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 66c | 75.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 17c | 57.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 72c | 52.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 52.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 67c | 52.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…0cfdbacked Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 58c | 51.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…4cf0backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 48.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 33c | 46.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed Yes | 31c | 45.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 31c | 44.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 30c | 42.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 26c | 42.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…0062backed Yes | 26c | 39.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 38.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 29c | 38.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 74c | 32.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…a28cbacked No | 74c | 32.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…17e4backed No | 66c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 28.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 28.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 69c | 27.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 44c | 26.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…6822backed No | 77c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 78c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…8a4dbacked No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72a…0f67backed No | 74c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 50c | 23.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 72c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 21.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…9cd6backed Yes | 70c | 21.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 73c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…0885backed No | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 17.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f1…1c9dbacked No | 66c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 72c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.