TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa502…4c89backed Yes58c847.11$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.121662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c538.78$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.382,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes37c398.02$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0647136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No71c279.67$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5314168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes25c239.79$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c231.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No54c207.17$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8946626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c197.28$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked No61c195.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0719047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c195.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.831,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c173.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c150.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.492,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes24c148.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.61,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes33c142.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6410225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c134.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.656,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c130.63$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes28c125.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.781,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes55c124.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.319449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes20c123.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5346733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes13c112.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8715433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c92.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.947,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c89.27$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.162,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes29c85.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0920835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes33c84.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No75c83.17$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.429176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes55c82.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes36c81.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4511038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes31c76.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.683013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed No66c75.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.637936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes29c64.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.582835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc80…56a7backed Yes17c57.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0916412.2%20 W · 144 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No72c52.88$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5410569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No75c52.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No67c52.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0319152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9963…0cfdbacked Yes36c52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No58c51.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6454966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00eb…4cf0backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No48c48.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.271,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes33c46.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.379235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa81a…dce9backed Yes31c45.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-67.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xca2e…88f5backed Yes31c44.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.971526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes30c42.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8526434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes26c42.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8339159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No74c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.925,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.48366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa6…0062backed Yes26c39.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.182360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes27c38.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4866735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes29c38.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No62c38.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54f…977cbacked No74c32.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.383366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No76c32.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b63…a28cbacked No74c32.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c31.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9266141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb39…17e4backed No66c29.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes35c29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.158531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c28.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.62,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No77c28.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5418272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6def…7849backed Yes70c27.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes69c27.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.719338.7%36 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No77c26.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.168969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes44c26.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4518255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0e…6822backed No77c25.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761070%7 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72a…61debacked No78c25.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.551376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef45…8a4dbacked No77c24.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.731872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…fb04backed No63c23.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9511844.9%53 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No76c23.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72a…0f67backed No74c23.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No50c23.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5311449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No72c22.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2516575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No75c21.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No67c21.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.149779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ab3…9cd6backed Yes70c21.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed No73c19.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4813053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34be…0885backed No59c19.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x750d…70f0backed Yes70c19.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.582759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c18.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.541,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No80c17.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5341460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No70c17.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1440777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No71c16.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8576371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f1…1c9dbacked No66c16.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.321,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.862,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No78c15.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.317777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fe3…6580backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352090%18 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No72c14.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.217066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.