Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9154f3ca5cf96b767552bbaf65aade0734e950e2d23c96c730c3b43cc196e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 296.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 286.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 246.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 234.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 231.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 209.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 197.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 197.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed No | 76c | 167.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 134.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 132.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 127.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 122.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 105.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 103.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 101.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 16c | 97.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 93.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 86.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 64c | 78.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 74.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 79c | 73.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 66.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 31c | 61.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 34c | 55.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 51.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…4cf0backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 34c | 48.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 30c | 44.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 30c | 42.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 37.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 32.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 70c | 21.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 74c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 66c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 74c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 75c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…825bbacked No | 78c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.