South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x775ab639fb3d2a76fccec2877dac831439cb84ee9f62065a97d18684e6e15eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked No | 79c | 15,645$12,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.39 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 10,417$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.57 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 2,919$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.04 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,028$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.89 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,687$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 13c | 731.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 21c | 604$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 33c | 532.8$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.31 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 429.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 25c | 367.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 25c | 365.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 26c | 338.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 62c | 282$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 21c | 217.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 21c | 203.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 21c | 174.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 98.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 28c | 91.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 65.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 21c | 58.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 21c | 58.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 21c | 58.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 23c | 53.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 48.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes | 22c | 47.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 38c | 43.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed Yes | 38c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked No | 80c | 29.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…e4f4backed No | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…b76bbacked No | 63c | 16.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-04-12?No won
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.