MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7770cf3ce67ecb6c5360fbf3e9d26d57740df27802e240f05cfcfa3d95cdd89d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 2,213$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.99 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 1,979$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 270$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 24c | 189.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 58c | 170.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 144.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 142.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 58c | 138.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 125.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Under | 56c | 122.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 42c | 111.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 45c | 89.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 85.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 52c | 67.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…6542backed Under | 58c | 67.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 55.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Over | 33c | 52.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Over | 29c | 43.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 40c | 37.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 44c | 31.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 29.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Under | 52c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…f0c4backed Under | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 57c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.