MLB · resolved market
NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1b2c899b111a723f6af55e40d8fb55f5923f177d150fa643516e138ece9ce47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Yes | 52c | 6,384$3,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,319.71 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed No | 48c | 4,079$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.07 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed No | 48c | 1,990$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.87 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 50c | 1,974$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.75 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Yes | 52c | 1,970$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 48c | 1,172$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.44 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 26c | 771.02$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.02 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 50c | 599.99$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 50c | 470$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.35 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 68c | 348.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 9c | 232$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 68c | 218.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…e6b8backed Yes | 52c | 143.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed No | 48c | 124.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed No | 48c | 117.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 51c | 87.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked No | 48c | 51.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 52c | 45.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…9a69backed No | 48c | 45.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 73c | 35.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 47c | 33.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…ec46backed Yes | 52c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Yes | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinalsthis page
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.