Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77750370f3955fdcfff179d3a8be830ee5ee149b2c4f0f452bbc0d6c62d709db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 62c | 801.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.85 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 249.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 18c | 230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed No | 44c | 211.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a56…a106backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 41c | 191.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…8613backed Yes | 52c | 154$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…70a1backed No | 48c | 154$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…6495backed No | 48c | 154$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f8…3e9dbacked Yes | 52c | 154$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 54c | 149.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 11c | 110.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…afd2backed No | 37c | 101.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 98.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 52c | 90.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 67c | 89.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 85.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…43f4backed Yes | 64c | 78.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 40c | 63.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb33d…649bbacked Yes | 63c | 58.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…21f2backed Yes | 63c | 55.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…d2e8backed No | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2a8dbacked No | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cc…3984backed Yes | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…27dcbacked Yes | 63c | 48.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730c…701bbacked No | 37c | 48.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…7bbcbacked Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…ef6dbacked Yes | 64c | 44.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…2054backed No | 35c | 39.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…634cbacked Yes | 64c | 38.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…6948backed No | 37c | 38.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…2d4cbacked No | 35c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…8477backed Yes | 62c | 37.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5eb…5b90backed No | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…f751backed No | 37c | 36.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…e797backed No | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…833bbacked No | 36c | 35.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…610dbacked No | 35c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f89fbacked Yes | 62c | 30.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0200…3e4fbacked Yes | 64c | 28.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…8334backed No | 39c | 28.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 63c | 27.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…4ef9backed Yes | 60c | 24.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…0be7backed Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…26c0backed No | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…1156backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x621a…f715backed Yes | 60c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…5a9bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…d4cdbacked Yes | 79c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…ffbbbacked Yes | 63c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…77dfbacked Yes | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.