Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777992fde2f7ab9ed5076aff16d6ed9ceeb0b5b22ab6c990a1a37a1465a009a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 3,644$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.69 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked No | 72c | 3,644$2,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 2,658$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.96 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked No | 73c | 2,317$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 2,083$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.54 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 4c | 1,491$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 748.46$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.37 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 621.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.06 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 8c | 600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 76c | 473.93$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 22c | 458.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.79 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 328.58$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.61 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked No | 67c | 260$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 255$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.06 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Yes | 22c | 145$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c8…8538backed Yes | 80c | 125.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…14bfbacked No | 20c | 123.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 29c | 113$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 35c | 93.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 28c | 92.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 29c | 82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed No | 72c | 79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 28c | 72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…d47abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…a762backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 75c | 62.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…cd55backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed Yes | 39c | 38.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed No | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 65c | 18.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.