Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30d2e01f854e55b990203e634383fc6d068b8fa7ff4207d168e2cc9eadfc0ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Yes | 57c | 7,917$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 3,266$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.14 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…d26ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,030$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 45c | 1,865$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.12 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 1,770$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.77 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,484$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,431$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 39c | 1,034$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.67 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 45c | 1,019$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.72 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.42per pick | 14cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 8c | 700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Yes | 5c | 599.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed Yes | 46c | 499.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…9eacbacked Yes | 37c | 461.49$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…0287backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 74c | 269.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed No | 54c | 201.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 41c | 198.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Yes | 34c | 161$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed No | 54c | 154.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 28c | 144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 46c | 143.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 67c | 121$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Yes | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 47c | 102.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…4be7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 55c | 96.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 48c | 52.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes | 61c | 39.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 38.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 74c | 29.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d33…3701backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d0…902cbacked Yes | 76c | 21.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked No | 54c | 20.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.