Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77c060b9389d944e05cb614419d8fdebb08493dcc2567f9dc56c9ed7488dab4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 4,560$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.55 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…905bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 4,406$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 1,836$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.31 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 1,098$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.84 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 977.91$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.28 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 870.25$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.16 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 777.77$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 639.91$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.95 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 542.11$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.16 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 343.34$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.46 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 255.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 233.35$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…184dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 199$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…1dbcbacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 197.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 157.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 131.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 101.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…a239backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 98.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 82.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…8b9ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 61c | 71.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 60.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 45.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 44.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Duke Blue Devils | 71c | 29.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 21.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.