Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfde5805d90ecd3119fed8ac32151ab6108ef3f215dad4b0c7378869b45b17457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 53c | 4,489$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.79 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 52c | 968.6$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.9 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 47c | 876.29$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.86 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 56c | 808.97$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.42 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 632.73$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 47c | 512.98$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 511.7$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.67 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 497.62$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.88 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 494.29$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.97 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 381.64$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 47c | 289.15$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Under | 46c | 243.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Under | 51c | 193.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7264…308ebacked Under | 52c | 185.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +139%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 55c | 173.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 50c | 153.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 140.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 55c | 134.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 45c | 129.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 125.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 51c | 118.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 47c | 99.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 172 | 41.3%71 W · 101 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 52c | 99.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…6179backed Over | 47c | 63.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Over | 47c | 51.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 47c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 49c | 37.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 51c | 31.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 47c | 23.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5this page
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.