Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 149.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7825afc9a6689be415b9c8e53a6475c3178da0f8cfd3337051442d0d75ee99c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 48c | 1,548$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.97 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 55c | 507.56$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Under | 52c | 457.96$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.14 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 428.17$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.7 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Under | 52c | 419.38$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 52c | 381.26$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 52c | 326.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 115.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 48c | 91.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 57.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 44c | 51.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Under | 48c | 49.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 47.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 37.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Over | 55c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 149.5this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State WolfpackDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 148.5Over won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 150.5Over won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.