La Liga · resolved market
Will UD Almería win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7857cc1a6f2f05887cfa36156e107bd7b2621b17c0e6b14fd364f036e22ba154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 38c | 25,000$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,499.99 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 62c | 20,517$12,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,796.5 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 4,294$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.25 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 35c | 2,869$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 1,582$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.27 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 23c | 762.5$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 76c | 508.59$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…9133backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 440.3$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 15c | 406$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 38c | 339.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…c6bbbacked Yes | 14c | 309.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 286.11$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | +21.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 225.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 38c | 182.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 71c | 163.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 37c | 158.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 62c | 139.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 60c | 138.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 22c | 134.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked No | 68c | 133.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 20c | 132.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 40c | 129.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked No | 63c | 124$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 37c | 103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 63c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 38c | 81.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 65cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed No | 62c | 21.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UD Almería win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw?No won
- Will Málaga CF win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.