Tennis · resolved market
ITF Saskatoon: Kayo Nishimura vs Isabella Marton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7866e4b97a1815ef877c7b63ca5bb3bab540bdbac0b952477541ff5665f2bf8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Isabella Martonof Kayo Nishimura, Isabella Marton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Isabella Marton | 45c | 2,908$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.32 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kayo Nishimura | 54c | 2,335$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.21 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kayo Nishimura | 57c | 2,314$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.71 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Isabella Marton | 42c | 276.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Isabella Marton | 47c | 254.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Kayo Nishimura | 65c | 230.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Isabella Marton | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Isabella Marton | 43c | 123.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Isabella Marton | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Isabella Marton | 46c | 113.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Isabella Marton | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Isabella Marton | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Isabella Marton | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…a986backed Kayo Nishimura | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Kayo Nishimura | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Kayo Nishimura | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 360 | 53.1%191 W · 169 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kayo Nishimura | 79c | 95.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Isabella Marton | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Kayo Nishimura | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Isabella Marton | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Isabella Marton | 44c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Isabella Marton | 52c | 85.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Isabella Marton | 46c | 79.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Isabella Marton | 34c | 78.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Isabella Marton | 42c | 78.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Isabella Marton | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c8…190abacked Kayo Nishimura | 59c | 50.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Isabella Marton | 45c | 46.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 215 | 54%116 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed Isabella Marton | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Isabella Marton | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Isabella Marton | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Kayo Nishimura | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Isabella Marton | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Kayo Nishimura | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Kayo Nishimura | 55c | 28.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Kayo Nishimura | 49c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Isabella Marton | 61c | 27.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Isabella Marton | 47c | 26.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kayo Nishimura | 52c | 25.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Isabella Marton | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Kayo Nishimura | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Kayo Nishimura | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Kayo Nishimura | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.