Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7876ac1af5e18a1f46cbc49eb1656eef264bdee0dd99be842f72ab6f21f01d58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $533,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $613,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 5c | 63,060$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.99 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 13c | 33,190$4,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,311.73 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 6c | 30,325$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.51 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 6c | 27,522$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.34 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 5c | 21,342$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.68 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c255backed No | 5c | 15,727$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.89 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 6c | 12,514$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.52 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 6c | 12,362$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.83 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 6c | 11,133$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.65 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed No | 6c | 10,233$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.98 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked No | 7c | 9,596$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.12 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 7c | 9,302$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.63 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 6c | 8,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…b6a2backed No | 8c | 7,941$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 7c | 6,100$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked No | 7c | 4,320$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 6c | 4,167$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…926ebacked No | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6416…18d7backed No | 7c | 3,301$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 6c | 2,047$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 5c | 2,033$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed No | 7c | 1,920$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…a8a7backed No | 7c | 1,282$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 9c | 1,250$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 113 | 24.8%28 W · 85 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6e…2a01backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c1…9197backed No | 5c | 985.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 6c | 764.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 7c | 720.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…0c5abacked No | 6c | 621$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…c48fbacked No | 7c | 564.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…01fdbacked No | 6c | 530$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 6c | 499.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 24.4%30 W · 93 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked No | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…040dbacked No | 6c | 385$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed No | 6c | 333.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 7c | 320$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 233 | 25.8%60 W · 173 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 295.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 8c | 287.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked No | 8c | 277.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed No | 7c | 242$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 6c | 235.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…6715backed No | 7c | 234.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 6c | 200.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 8c | 195$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 9c | 193.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed No | 8c | 192.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed No | 8c | 180.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed No | 6c | 177$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…83c8backed No | 7c | 170.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4dc5backed No | 6c | 168.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 6c | 167.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 10c | 149.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 147.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-15?this page
- Will Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-02-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.