MLB · resolved market
NL Wildcard: Brewers vs. Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x787b1a9fbf2d68e10a363a23043f04eda11031bf80d32befb266314e8a636b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Brewers, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Brewers | 52c | 21,506$11,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,221.29 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Mets | 49c | 18,540$9,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,520.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Mets | 41c | 3,741$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Mets | 44c | 2,248$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Brewers | 60c | 1,680$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Mets | 41c | 999.38$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.64 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Brewers | 50c | 993.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…21a8backed Brewers | 78c | 834.4$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Brewers | 56c | 558.24$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Brewers | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Brewers | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Mets | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Brewers | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Mets | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Mets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked Mets | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Mets | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…636abacked Mets | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Brewers | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Mets | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Mets | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Mets | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Brewers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Brewers | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.