Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78815b1feb9507156c355e1eab4b5d59cd2382bfdeb30f132ba463a2a66fd0fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9548…655fbacked No | 59c | 488.18$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 327$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 64c | 308.44$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 51c | 291.54$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…5f49backed No | 42c | 240.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 74c | 235.66$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 53c | 208.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 199.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 77c | 194.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 30c | 174.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 164.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 56c | 160.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 139.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 19c | 124.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 11c | 119.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 105.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 102.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 32c | 91.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 87.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 41c | 84.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 52c | 77.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 75c | 72.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 70.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 63.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…be22backed No | 59c | 62.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 62.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 50c | 61.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 40c | 60.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 44c | 53.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 51.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 28c | 51.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 58c | 50.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 59c | 48.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 42c | 47.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…1a52backed No | 59c | 46.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 46.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 52c | 45.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 37c | 44.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 42c | 44.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…65a1backed Yes | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 57c | 43.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed No | 35c | 40.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…b17abacked No | 47c | 38.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…8dbbbacked Yes | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 40c | 35.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 34.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…3697backed Yes | 41c | 32.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed No | 56c | 32.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 62c | 32.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 31.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 31.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 31.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 30.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…77dbbacked No | 47c | 30.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3f…b576backed Yes | 41c | 25.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 61c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 23.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 43c | 23.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 55c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 52c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…22ecbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 64c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 74c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.