Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef69a34135e63ab908deea0ace590fb1b6523c8a551faa1282ddccbc35d8600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 1c | 3,222$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…655fbacked Yes | 49c | 815.16$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 390.61$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 77c | 323.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 258.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 232.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 34c | 144.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 142.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 52c | 135.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 46c | 122.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 108.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 49c | 101.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 39c | 99.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 49c | 95.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 30c | 85.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 28c | 73.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 70.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 56.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed Yes | 28c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 32c | 48.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 60c | 48.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 39.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 37.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 36.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 34c | 34.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 59c | 27.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 73c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…22ecbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 48c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 22.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 67c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 65c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.