Serie A · resolved market
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78918ca9d835c0068136cfa1420a138b2e1b6b40c4dc8ea564baeeb6508d6a2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udinese Calcioof SSC Napoli, Udinese Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Udinese Calcio | 77c | 4,941$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.08 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed SSC Napoli | 23c | 4,600$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.12 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed SSC Napoli | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 545.25$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…fa80backed SSC Napoli | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 129.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Udinese Calcio | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Udinese Calcio | 75c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed SSC Napoli | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed SSC Napoli | 23c | 68.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed SSC Napoli | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed SSC Napoli | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Udinese Calcio | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Udinese Calcio | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Udinese Calcio | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)this page
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.