Serie A · resolved market
Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a9814815061119e0b9ba601d3b253bfa4f649d4f35205920e1c3e55913d53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 21,374$14,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,451.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 26c | 19,398$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.48 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 74c | 1,921$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.16 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 56c | 1,868$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.17 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 33c | 1,818$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 68c | 1,179$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 1,153$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.78 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…56cbbacked Over | 32c | 951.96$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 28c | 900.36$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 64c | 863.28$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.5 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…5881backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 13c | 288.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 213.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…fca8backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 33c | 88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Over | 67c | 61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 33c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 32c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…f012backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Over | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 66c | 19.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Over | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.