Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona Wildcats vs. San Diego State Aztecs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78b41d5b4c2ad9420b5b08717ae8a65e68c63329ecf4c5fe2a4d0fa2f6f8158a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, San Diego State Aztecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed San Diego State Aztecs | 10c | 4,651$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.19 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed San Diego State Aztecs | 1c | 2,726$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego State Aztecs | 29c | 2,448$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.51 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Wildcats | 72c | 1,421$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.14 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego State Aztecs | 8c | 1,226$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona Wildcats | 69c | 1,218$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.67 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 8c | 1,096$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked San Diego State Aztecs | 34c | 958.08$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Wildcats | 77c | 869.79$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.19 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arizona Wildcats | 80c | 763.6$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 12c | 694.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…7124backed San Diego State Aztecs | 25c | 397.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +68%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego State Aztecs | 32c | 349.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed San Diego State Aztecs | 21c | 327.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed San Diego State Aztecs | 9c | 270.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Diego State Aztecs | 17c | 232.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Arizona Wildcats | 78c | 224.43$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed San Diego State Aztecs | 8c | 148.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked San Diego State Aztecs | 21c | 134.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed San Diego State Aztecs | 16c | 131.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed San Diego State Aztecs | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed San Diego State Aztecs | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 73c | 92.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed San Diego State Aztecs | 16c | 80.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Arizona Wildcats | 78c | 67.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 71c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.