WNBA · resolved market
Fever vs. Dream
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d4b67c6e99350d959adfa5be037ae810848d2ea97a0a2f241b93b1c80dc5d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dreamof Fever, Dream
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Fever | 28c | 6,346$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.09 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Fever | 29c | 5,052$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.59 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Dream | 71c | 3,521$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.12 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fever | 30c | 3,509$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.65 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Dream | 63c | 3,000$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Dream | 75c | 1,680$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Dream | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Dream | 72c | 1,305$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.7 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fever | 26c | 1,295$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Dream | 73c | 786.08$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.24 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dream | 69c | 703.39$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.67 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Fever | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fever | 25c | 438.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Dream | 74c | 422.05$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Dream | 74c | 397.13$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fever | 25c | 363.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Fever | 34c | 261.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Fever | 24c | 199.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Fever | 35c | 199.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Dream | 63c | 176.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Dream | 66c | 170.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Fever | 20c | 152.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Fever | 32c | 143.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed Fever | 25c | 137.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed Dream | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fever | 16c | 131.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Dream | 66c | 128.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Fever | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…5bb5backed Dream | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Dream | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Fever | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…826bbacked Fever | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fever | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Fever | 32c | 76.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Dream | 75c | 54.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Dream | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Fever | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Fever | 25c | 43.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Fever | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…94f5backed Fever | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Dream | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Dream | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…605dbacked Dream | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…d029backed Dream | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…fceebacked Dream | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.