MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d78998120bf3e054efaf42caf95ac75910c1ac2586de8ff9cb2fd3e3022b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Cardinals, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Royals | 50c | 20,434$10,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,216.87 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 17,027$8,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,513.48 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals | 41c | 2,883$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 50c | 2,155$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.31 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Cardinals | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Royals | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 55c | 1,610$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.24 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…4534backed Royals | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 1,497$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 49c | 1,156$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.08 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Cardinals | 23c | 1,012$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.74 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…040bbacked Cardinals | 53c | 945.62$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Royals | 51c | 790.01$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.1 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 739.12$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals | 16c | 690$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Cardinals | 51c | 597.12$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.57 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cardinals | 19c | 519$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Royals | 69c | 435$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Royals | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cardinals | 34c | 389.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cardinals | 41c | 335.27$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Royals | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Cardinals | 4c | 298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Cardinals | 21c | 246.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Royals | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Royals | 54c | 184.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d02…d6f4backed Cardinals | 53c | 163.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5590…3602backed Royals | 54c | 148.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals | 65c | 146.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Cardinals | 50c | 130.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Cardinals | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Cardinals | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 78c | 103.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Royals | 48c | 103$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Royals | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Royals | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cardinals | 42c | 82.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Cardinals | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Royals | 73c | 45.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Royals | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cardinals | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cardinals | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Cardinals | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…e5c1backed Royals | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Royals | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cardinals | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Royals | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Royals | 52c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.