Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign a bill into law before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e27c966605e50314af86c5921ac259645742651d214ac179da9fb299fccfd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5108…bb94backed Yes | 64c | 57,826$37,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,817.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…e647backed No | 36c | 57,826$20,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,817.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 5,071$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 3,173$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 3c | 2,216$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 71c | 1,713$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.12 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 12c | 1,305$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 3c | 1,046$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 728.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 3c | 362.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 5c | 310.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0c…1cd6backed No | 12c | 168.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 78c | 154.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 22c | 97.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 64c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…38d8backed No | 33c | 61.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5d…58bdbacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 75c | 43.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed Yes | 65c | 42.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.