Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-36.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78f7bb7b3ad1ed69262ed5967d49ea65c2142491ec8c49cf608444a19c61b9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LIU Sharksof Arizona Wildcats, LIU Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,037 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Arizona Wildcats | 37c | 1,173$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.1 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Arizona Wildcats | 57c | 698.39$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed LIU Sharks | 64c | 455.31$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e3…a9eebacked LIU Sharks | 52c | 392.7$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked LIU Sharks | 61c | 357$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed LIU Sharks | 63c | 242.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed LIU Sharks | 42c | 149.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12b…a340backed LIU Sharks | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked LIU Sharks | 69c | 95.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 91.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed LIU Sharks | 57c | 49.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed LIU Sharks | 64c | 44.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Arizona Wildcats | 41c | 40.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Arizona Wildcats | 39c | 31.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed LIU Sharks | 57c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed LIU Sharks | 63c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-36.5)this page
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 147.5Over won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 148.5Over won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 149.5Over won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 150.5Under won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 151.5Under won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-33.5)Arizona Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.