Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5874f9c3df03935b16aea2f2606f28160a5ed410b1a433fd5e16cbb8326a1a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof LIU Sharks, Arizona Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,243,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,257,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,243,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed LIU Sharks | 0c | 449,976$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.95 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed LIU Sharks | 0c | 386,494$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 55,438$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 53,306$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 49,120$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.86 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…353cbacked LIU Sharks | 0c | 39,227$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…a570backed LIU Sharks | 0c | 28,511$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb788…2b73backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 25,729$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…fcd3backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 19,990$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed LIU Sharks | 0c | 18,498$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 18,476$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 149 | 30.2%45 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 15,983$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8185…9b29backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 15,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 13,880$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.85 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 13,326$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 12,450$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…bbccbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 12,031$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…3873backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 11,999$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 11,373$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked LIU Sharks | 0c | 11,099$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…401fbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 10,569$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…a659backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 8,899$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 8,200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…cd75backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 7,199$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c9…7863backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 7,151$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed LIU Sharks | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 5,541$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…27d2backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 5,133$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed LIU Sharks | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 48.9%88 W · 92 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…0f3abacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 3,866$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…770dbacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 3,844$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 3,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 3,298$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 3,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 2,845$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9328…213bbacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 2,650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…49afbacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 2,552$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…67a8backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 2,511$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 2,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 2,499$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 2,498$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…5ebdbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 2,309$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,957$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4361…873fbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,599$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…6be7backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,558$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -8.5wins | -0.31per pick | 35cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…3fc8backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 1,504$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 21%35 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,464$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…7992backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 1,374$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…668cbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…e6b7backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,249$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,249$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea9…e10ebacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,249$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…1152backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,239$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…99ddbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…2706backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,019$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 1,002$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…0d2abacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…7f8cbacked LIU Sharks | 1c | 999.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 999.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…3712backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 999.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 999.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621c…7721backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 998.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 946$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b00…c111backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 936.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…82d7backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 922.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cb…c79abacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 918.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed LIU Sharks | 2c | 799.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed LIU Sharks | 1c | 732.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…d82bbacked LIU Sharks | 2c | 599.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcatsthis page
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 147.5Over won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 148.5Over won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 149.5Over won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 150.5Under won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 151.5Under won
- LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-33.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-36.5)LIU Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.