Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791e3fd479a665a9f93468f55e373573d48adc597bb2db507266832de388ba00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 6,483$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.02 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 32c | 858.89$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.79 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 16c | 629.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.68 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 11c | 490.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 43c | 318.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…2501backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 262.75$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 43c | 226.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 59c | 190$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 102.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 45c | 66.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 49.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 43c | 42.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 53c | 39.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Over | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 42c | 34.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2688backed Under | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 55c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)Qarabağ Ağdam FK won
- Spread: FC Twente (-2.5)Qarabağ Ağdam FK won
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)FC Twente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.