Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44666cb4eea11c51547507b25e817e1ce6503928e13373f0b94c8b8f00a7fabd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 70c | 5,057$3,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.64 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 3,646$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.45 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 815.02$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.28 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 53c | 707$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.71 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 20c | 704.01$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.84 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 516.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…084dbacked Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 64c | 196.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 176.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 169.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 161.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 139.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 47c | 135$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 37c | 113.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 36c | 97.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 82.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708b…6412backed Under | 47c | 80.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 54c | 35.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9c36backed Under | 47c | 33.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 37c | 28.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Over | 65c | 15.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)Qarabağ Ağdam FK won
- Spread: FC Twente (-2.5)Qarabağ Ağdam FK won
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)FC Twente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.