Tennis · resolved market
Lyon: Luca Staeheli vs Felix Balshaw
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79294b93250d6b89e226e3c1cc21dca054b57cd8ede19b5dedf463d6f71b124a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Felix Balshawof Luca Staeheli, Felix Balshaw
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Luca Staeheli | 23c | 2,631$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.05 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Luca Staeheli | 18c | 2,591$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.21 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Luca Staeheli | 14c | 1,794$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.23 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Luca Staeheli | 21c | 1,388$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.72 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Luca Staeheli | 10c | 1,338$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Luca Staeheli | 6c | 777$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Luca Staeheli | 12c | 658.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Luca Staeheli | 27c | 499.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Luca Staeheli | 25c | 446.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Felix Balshaw | 73c | 413.35$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Luca Staeheli | 8c | 368.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 707 | 29.1%206 W · 501 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb9…4009backed Felix Balshaw | 74c | 346$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…41e1backed Felix Balshaw | 76c | 257$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 371 | 58.8%218 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Luca Staeheli | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…3a00backed Luca Staeheli | 9c | 222.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Luca Staeheli | 11c | 187.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…dcbebacked Felix Balshaw | 79c | 173$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e0…5a1bbacked Luca Staeheli | 8c | 171.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 215 | 33.5%72 W · 143 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…5ea8backed Felix Balshaw | 74c | 134.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Luca Staeheli | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…d7f6backed Felix Balshaw | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Luca Staeheli | 20c | 113.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Felix Balshaw | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Luca Staeheli | 19c | 109.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Luca Staeheli | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Luca Staeheli | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Luca Staeheli | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 35.1%78 W · 144 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Luca Staeheli | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 50.9%171 W · 165 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Felix Balshaw | 73c | 96.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Luca Staeheli | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 121 | 9.1%11 W · 110 L | -37.3wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 22-0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Luca Staeheli | 12c | 86.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…b0ecbacked Luca Staeheli | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 127 | 34.6%44 W · 83 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Luca Staeheli | 21c | 71.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Luca Staeheli | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 196 | 34.2%67 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Luca Staeheli | 25c | 61.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Luca Staeheli | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Felix Balshaw | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Felix Balshaw | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Luca Staeheli | 28c | 39.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Felix Balshaw | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Felix Balshaw | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Felix Balshaw | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 209 | 57.9%121 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Felix Balshaw | 78c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Felix Balshaw | 77c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Felix Balshaw | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Felix Balshaw | 78c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Felix Balshaw | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Felix Balshaw | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Felix Balshaw | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Felix Balshaw | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.