MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79556661974b7ee80e7bc3dc8925345cf9b46a19f67d067cb62bb8c778f3d890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 4,039$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 3,371$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.14 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 79c | 1,816$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.14 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 21c | 1,405$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.54 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 900$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.28 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 21c | 803.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.33 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 323.3$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.13 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed New York Yankees | 21c | 300$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.05 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 43c | 164.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox | 80c | 130$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Yankees | 50c | 102.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 73.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Yankees | 44c | 72.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 61.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 44.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees | 44c | 39.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed New York Yankees | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 36.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Chicago White Sox | 34c | 32.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 24.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 21.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.